According to Mark Twain, Benjamin Disraeli — the UK prime minister in the 1860s and 1870s — once said, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Statistics are a critical tool we all use to keep track of our performance and understand basic trends. But sometimes the normal statistics we use routinely to gauge progress, although technically accurate, can provide an inaccurate impression to those who don’t take the time to dig a little deeper.

Such is the case with current statistics concerning an ongoing recovery in rail carload volumes. What’s going on with rail carloads has big intermodal implications because if carloads aren’t growing, it puts more pressure on the intermodal sector to deliver the goods, in terms of volume and revenue.

Often one of the first measures used to gauge the health of any business or market is the year-over-year comparison. There are good reasons for its popularity. Most importantly, the comparison washes out seasonal effects because we’re comparing like time frames in each year.

Based on the year-over-year measurement, the news is great, and rail carloads are in growth mode. As this column was written, total North American rail carload volume (excluding intermodal) was up a whopping 9.6 percent over the most recent four-week period compared with the same four weeks in 2016. What’s not to like?

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