Shippers are experiencing a period of relative tranquility on the trucking front. Although contract rates have been rising because of cost pressures such as increasing driver pay, lower fuel surcharges have gone a long way toward cushioning the blow. But shippers must keep sight of the fact that this calm won’t last long, perhaps ending later this year and, if not then, very likely over the next 12 to 24 months.

A big reason things are quiet now was the late-2014 rollback of the 34-hour restart provision of hours-of-service regulations. The result is an injection of more than 2 percent of additional capacity into the system and has made the critical difference between adequacy and shortage. But the rollback will expire on Sept. 30 unless Congress extends it. A mandated study of the restart provisions is underway, but as is typical of such things, it seems unlikely it will be completed by the deadline, hence the requirement for extension.

That it literally requires an act of Congress to extend the rollback — rather than the normal default congressional position of doing nothing — makes the situation problematic at best. If the rollback expires, anticipate a difficult fall peak shipping season from a truck capacity standpoint.

My good friend and FTR colleague Noel Perry, along with Annette Sandberg of Transafe Consulting, just completed their annual survey of the federal regulatory pipeline for trucking. Although no new items have been added to the list, the basic message is that there will be no letup in the pressure.

Importantly, three big-ticket items in terms of their impact on capacity loom: electronic logging devices, speed limiters and a national drug and alcohol database. Unlike hours of service, these will be relatively noncontroversial and therefore unlikely to be reversed by congressional action. All three have support from a significant percentage of motor carriers, namely, the big operators that are most likely to have a political presence in Washington.

Many fleets already use ELDs because they provide a better picture of available driver hours and, when used properly, can reduce the safety factor in scheduling, thereby increasing productivity. 

But a significant percentage of truckers, primarily smaller fleets and individual owner-operators, aren’t adhering strictly to the HOS regulations, but dodging the problem through pencil-whipping adjustments in their paper logbooks. That option will disappear with the installation of ELDs, forcing truckers to follow the rules strictly or face the consequences. This means capacity will fall upon implementation and then will slowly come back as truckers learn how to get value out of the new technology.

Speed limiters are the next big item. Many big operators already observe a 64-mph speed limit in the interests of fuel efficiency and safety, but other trucks are running much faster. Limiters that enforce a lower speed limit will reduce the productivity of those fast-moving truckers and increase pressure on the system.

Big operators favor these two provisions because they will level the playing field and make all the fleets play by the same rules.

The third item is the National Drug and Alcohol Database, which simply will mean that a failed drug test will become a permanent part of a driver’s record, accessible to all prospective employers. Today’s driver recruiters only have access to their own company’s drug tests, so drivers can evade the problem by switching employers and getting retested. It seems reasonable to expect many exits from the driver’s seat once this new protocol is implemented.

Timing of course will be critical. Detailed ELD regulations will be issued this fall, with full implementation scheduled for 2017. The effects will begin to be felt earlier as fleets progressively implement the equipment. Regulations for speed limiters also are scheduled to be published this fall, with likely implementation in 2017. And the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration is receiving comments on its proposal for the drug and alcohol database.

Combine these three items with a likely relaunch of a modified 34-hour restart provision (after completion of the study) and the crunch could begin in 2016 with full impact later in that year or 2017. 

What could keep this from happening? A delay in the FMCSA schedule certainly would, as would an economic downturn, the latter by postponing the crunch through reduced demand. But both of these would only delay, not eliminate, the day of reckoning.

Besides the big three, Noel and Annette have identified 18 other pending and ongoing regulations, all of which will have an impact. Shippers need to prepare for a future that will look different than things do today.